According to a new analysis by BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, the naira is expected to fall to N1,993 against the US dollar by 2028, providing a substantial challenge to Nigeria's pharmaceutical industry, particularly in terms of importing vital medical devices. In the research "Weak Naira and Structural Challenges to Constrain Nigeria's Medical Devices Market Growth," BMI predicted that, despite an expected economic rebound, Nigeria's medical devices sector will suffer operational and demand problems in the short term. According to the paper, Nigeria imports more than 95 percent of its medical devices, rendering it exposed to exchange rate changes. “Continued weakness of the naira will increase medical device import costs and erode consumer purchasing power. Similar to other markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria heavily relies on medical device imports, with reliance of over 95 per cent.

"We estimate the naira will conclude 2028 at N1,993/$, up from N306/$ in 2018. As the naira weakens, the cost of importing medical devices will rise, degrading both the health system and patient buying power, particularly the ability to invest in key medical technology given the public health sector's underfunding. "This would have a particular impact on high-cost demand for devices such as diagnostics, orthopaedics, and dental products." On the export front, a lower naira will boost the competitiveness of locally made medical products, promoting industry growth," the research concluded.

While a lower naira should boost the competitiveness of locally created medical equipment, BMI identified remaining impediments to local manufacturing. These include a lack of trained labor, restricted access to current technology, and insufficient infrastructure, which continue to stymie industrial attempts despite government incentives. The administration of President Bola Tinubu has taken steps to alleviate these tensions. In June 2024, an executive order was issued to decrease medical service prices by abolishing tariffs, excise charges, and value-added taxes on selected machinery, equipment, and raw materials, with the purpose of cutting local manufacturing costs.

However, BMI predicted that the medical device sector will continue to encounter substantial problems in the near term. According to the research, Nigeria's medical equipment market might reach N171.1 billion (£344.7 million) by 2028, owing to the country's enormous population, increased emphasis on universal health care, and the double burden of chronic and communicable illnesses. Nigeria's economy is forecast to recover by 2025, with a 3.0% growth rate predicted for 2024, up from 2.9% in 2023. However, ongoing difficulties such as rising inflation, stricter monetary policies, and little foreign direct investment may impede the expansion of the medical device business.